Trucking index up in July; industry cautious with improving trends

Officials with the American Trucking Associations’ and a leading Fort Smith-based trucking company are cautiously optimistic about improving trends in the long-beleaguered national trucking industry.

The ATA reported Aug. 26 that its seasonally adjusted July tonnage index was up 2.1%, compared to a June dip of 2.4%. Compared with July 2008, the seasonally adjusted index fell 10.4%, which was the best year-over-year rate since February 2009. The June year-over-year rate was down 13.6%. The ATA said the recent ups and downs in the trend may indicate the sector — which saw a tonnage decline begin in late 2006 — is seeing a bottom to the decline.
 
“It is not unusual for an economic indicator to become volatile before changing direction,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted in a statement. “While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight tonnage is about to rise significantly or consistently. ... Still, even small gains are better than the February 2008 through April 2009 cumulative tonnage reduction of 15.5 percent.”

David Humphrey, spokesman for Fort Smith-based Arkansas Best Corp., said tonnage at ABF Freight System — the company’s less-than-truckload subsidiary — was down 13% in July, an improvement over the 17.3% decline in the first half of 2009. Humphrey notes that the improvement is compared against a July 2008 in which per-day tonnage was down 2%.

“Stripping that effect out, we would say it was a little better but not much. However, we are cautious about overreacting to positive news until we see a sustained positive trend,” Humphrey said.
 
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 69% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods, according to the ATA.