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Asa narrowly leads Ross, Tea Party unfavorable

Editor’s note: This is the final of two stories analyzing recent poll data from Impact Management Group. Link here to read the first story.

A third poll conducted in October indicates a narrow lead by Republican Asa Hutchinson over Democrat Mike Ross in Arkansas’ gubernatorial race – with Hutchinson showing an advantage among Independent voters.

The poll also indicates that the Tea Party may have an image problem among likely Arkansas voters – especially among women.

According to poll results released by Little Rock-based Impact Management Group to The City Wire, 40.18% of survey respondents favored Hutchinson, 37.21% favored Ross and 22.6% remain undecided. The poll, conducted Oct. 24, reached 911 registered Arkansas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

A Talk Business-Hendrix College poll conducted Oct. 8 of 603 likely Arkansas voters showed Hutchinson with a 41%-37% lead over Ross with 22% undecided. The poll had a margin of error of +/-4%, and the results were similar to a February poll that showed Hutchinson with a 43%-38% lead over Ross with 19% undecided.

The University of Arkansas' annual Arkansas Poll, conducted Oct. 10-17, had Hutchinson polling at 32%, Ross at 30% and 38% of voters undecided.

Ross is the only Democratic candidate in the race to succeed Gov. Mike Beebe (D), with Hutchinson facing Little Rock businessman Curtis Coleman and Rep. Debra Hobbs, R-Rogers, in the May 2014 GOP primary.

INDEPENDENT ADVANTAGE
Clint Reed, a partner with Impact Management Group, said a problem for Democrats in the 2014 election cycle will be capturing an Independent voter group that leans more Republican than Democratic. The Impact poll showed that 40.28% of Independent voters favored the generic Republican ballot, compared to just 12.96% favoring the Democratic ballot.

The poll shows that Hutchinson is favored among self-identified Independents by 41.6%, with Ross garnering 27.3% among the group.

In addition to an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort among their respective base supporters, Reed said Hutchinson and Ross will need to target the almost 23% who are undecided. Of the undecided block, 31% self-identify as Independents.

Complicating the effort to target Independents, especially for Ross, is the greater chance – “intensity” – that Republicans and Independents will vote.

“Republicans (82%) and Independent (83%) voters have a slight intensity advantage over Democrats (78%) at this point in the election cycle. Bear in mind, a three to four point advantage in intensity could be the difference in a very close election,” Reed explained.

MONEY ADVANTAGE
Ross’ clear advantage as of October is in fundraising, and it gives him the financial potential to target the Independents and boost voter turnout among his supporters.

Ross recently followed up his record breaking second quarter fundraising total of $1.97 million with another record-breaking third quarter. According to reports filed with the Arkansas Secretary of State's office, Ross raised a total of $1.12 million. Ross has a little more than $2.4 million in his campaign fund.

Hutchinson raised only $393,181 in the third quarter, and has a little more than $1 million cash on hand.

“It’s no secret that money matters in politics. However, the strategic use of money can be more important than the quantity. As the campaigns gear up their advertising and other marketing efforts, it will be interesting to see how effective the money is in moving the poll numbers,” said Michael Tilley, editor and co-owner of The City Wire.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
The poll also produced a breakdown on how Hutchinson and Ross were viewed within Arkansas’ four Congressional districts. The sampling of between 217 and 232 respondents per district is a small sub-sample and doesn’t meet statistical confidence, however, it is noteworthy.

District breakdowns show a lead for Hutchinson in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, with Ross having a lead in the 2nd District. The 4th District, of which Ross represented during his years in the U.S. House of Representatives, shows a statistical tie.

1st Congressional District
Hutchinson: 40.09%
Ross: 33.62%

2nd Congressional District
Hutchinson: 38.7%
Ross: 45.22%

3rd Congressional District
Hutchinson: 43.78%
Ross: 30.41%

4th Congressional District
Hutchinson: 38.36%
Ross: 39.22%

TEA PARTY
The Tea Party movement among conservatives has grown nationally and in Arkansas in recent years, but likely Arkansas voters have mixed emotions about the group.

Impact Management included the following question in the Oct. 24 survey.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?
Favorable: 36%
Unfavorable: 41%
Don’t Know: 23%

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“The Tea Party is reaching a point where the general public views it more unfavorably than favorably. Within this, a gender gap is emerging, with 43% of female voters viewing the Tea Party unfavorably and 47% of males viewing it favorably,” Reed said. 

Not surprising, the Tea Party was viewed unfavorable by 73.67% of self-identified Democrats and favorable by 61.9% of self-identified Republicans.

Among the closely watched Independent voting group, the Tea Party was viewed favorably by 37.96% and unfavorably by 35.19% – a statistical tie.

METHODOLOGY
Impact Management Group conducted the automated phone survey on Oct. 24. There were 911 participants, and the margin of error is +/- 3.2%. Of the participants, 100% said they are registered voters, with 83% being likely voters.

Link here for a PDF of the full poll results.

Five Star Votes: 
Average: 5 (11 votes)

Comments

Asa

most folks in Arkansas are in support of Asa because of his work in support of the NRA and protecting the constitutional right to bear arms. this is a plus for him and also his ties to fort smith would also be a plus for this area if he were elected governor.

One trick pony for a one horse town

H T, you nailed it....Forget twice the price riverfront trails or college campus bell towers or even casino roulette wheels. "GUNS" is the preferred Icon for this town......."aynd y'all sooner not fergit" Russian roulette for the lefties, anyone?

View of the Tea Party

I know the TEA Party isn't favored by everyone. I wanted to shed some light on the group that may help. Most of what you hear is liberal bias that is of course not true (standard liberal demonetization). The TEA Party (TEA standing for taxed enough already) isn't for NO TAXES or NO GOVERNMENT. That is the Libertarian Party. The TEA Party does want the federal government to be operating under the rules of the Constitution and the states and local governments to have more control. The TEA Party wants a free market economy with as little government interference as possible (proven to expand the economy and allow real job creation). The TEA Party would like the military to be strong and used as a deterrent. The TEA Party want GOD and patriotism to be taught and allowed freely in society. The TEA Party is for rugged individualism and American exceptionalism. The Tea Party is not made up of racists or haters. When that is said it is a lie. The TEA Party is a threat to progressive liberals because we want the exact opposite of what they want. If you happened to learn true history when you were in school (not taught today) you would know that the patriots that started the revolutionary war and created the United States was comprised of about 25% of the population at that time. Even back then a majority of the people wanted to be taken care of by the government, we do not. We do not live in a Democracy, that is what the liberals would like (majority rules). We live in a Republic where the majority cannot rule without influence from everybody. This is why the current administration is ignoring the constitution and making their own rules around congress. We need more people like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and less like Obama and Harry Reid.
I know the TEA Party isn't favored by everyone. I wanted to shed some light on the group that may help. Most of what you hear is liberal bias that is of course not true (standard liberal demonetization). The TEA Party (TEA standing for taxed enough already) isn't for NO TAXES or NO GOVERNMENT. That is the Libertarian Party. The TEA Party does want the federal government to be operating under the rules of the Constitution and the states and local governments to have more control. The TEA Party wants a free market economy with as little government interference as possible (proven to expand the economy and allow real job creation). The TEA Party would like the ...>> Read the entire comment.

Rivervalley Conservatives

Tea Party Nonsense

There just isn't any nonsense coming from the Tea Party and most platforms of the TP are just everyday good old common sense! Our current national leader was so worried about the common sense approach of the TP that he called on all of his followers to demonize the party and its members to allow him to be elected and push his agenda of more government controls.

demonetization? --Standard Tea Pary ignorance and doublethink

You've got it backwards. Bring up changes for progress and the Conservatives will shoot it down and demonize the messenger, locally or nationally. Keep reciting your propaganda so you won't forget it. If it made sense you wouldn't need to inculcate it to make it stick. Your free market characterization is unproven. When is the last time we had a laissez-faire when monopolies created plutocracies? Teabaggers lie to themselves. They are extremists and obstructionists who would shut down the government causing billions of dollars of economic loss rather than fund a law which was already on the books. A Republic is a representative democracy. That is the democracy American Democrats refer to. I guess you didn't get that assignment in Civics class. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul pander to you old white suckers.

It wasn't the Tea Party

The Tea Party didn't run up the National Debt to over 17 Trillion dollars and still Rising where every man, woman, and child in this country owe over 60,000 dollars because of the National Debt! Its not the Tea Party running the Post Office that loses 5 billion dollars this year! Its not the Tea Party running Social Security that is going broke so pucker up T.P. Onyou because your party has had a real party on your money and the party has not ended yet.

Where were you when the lights went out

T P fanatics are self-brainwashing. Like someone said on TCW once before,"their minds are made-up, don't confuse them with the facts". Fact is the budget deficit is coming down. 24% lower from October 2012 to October 2013. VP Cheney reminded us that Reagan said deficits don't matter....BTW, government should stay out of everyone's Medicare LOL. Crazy old white men got theirs, so forget everybody else. Check your meds. http://www.bigmoneyarcade.com/index.php?action=playgame&gameid=427

Denial and Bull

The National Debt is way over 17 trillion dollars and rising faster than the morning sun! the National Debt has almost doubled under the current President and someone is trying to convince us that its "coming down". Bet they believed when they were told that "they could keep their doctor and their health care plan if they liked it"! It looks like the lights were never on for this person or maybe they are over medicated on someone else's dollar and believe the purpose of government is to hand out free stuff. The TP has never been in charge of government budgets or spending so find another Bull to take to market!

deficit

There is a difference between debt and deficit. The deficit is indeed dropping, the debt is not. We could argue about an unnecessary, unfunded war in Iraq and the costly consequences, reduced revenues due to unfunded tax cuts and other such effects to the budget of which only the last four years fall under the current administration (2010-13), but entrenched political views won't change.

D vs D

Debt equals the accumulated deficits. So to reduce debt the deficits need to be reduced. That is what is happening as we speak.

Facts

After rising to bailout Wall Street and for token Republican watered down economic stimulus, the deficit has gone down this past 12 months. You can't turn a ship around in a storm, you need to go around it or weather it until calm seas. Obama has kept the ship of state from foundering after it was torpedoed by Wall Street's 8 year assault on the economy. In a frenzy of economic battles won by the foot soldies, the war was lost in the end with the captains of industry plundering then abandoning ship. The TeaParty wants to continue tossing cargo overboard from the poopdeck after the Wall street Pirate fleet has left the harbor. Too late and too old "swabbies" !!

Rags to Riches

Some of the wealthiest people is America are democrats, one has to wonder how that happened while the Tea Party People are just average working Americans. Hmmmm, there must be a lot of money made giving other people money away.

a little sully in your tea

I see no difference between the requirement for insurance to drive a car with the requirement of insurance to live your life. To dig in for the sake of argument ignores everything we know to date about preventive healthcare as well as the consequences to all taxpayers and insurance buyers. Give Affordable Care a chance to mature before you have to kick sand at it at every turn. It's fixable and will have a positive impact on society at large once fully implemented.

Somebody needs to stand in the way

of a bad law like Obamacare. Very little need for me to carry coverage for having a baby AND prostate cancer..why not just go with one price for everyone period if we're going to dink with it? I'm not going to complain about Ted Cruz with the likes of Reed, Boxer, Pelosi, Shumer, and the rest of their ilk still in there.

Balanced Budgets

The American People should insist that we have a balanced budget in Washington with a 5% surplus that is directed at paying off the National Debt in 20 years because it is wrong to heap a debt of the next generation. I won't even mention the Fort Smith budget that could be called "the greatest mystery story ever told".

You got it

One single price, one single payer...Simple enough even a Tea Party Geroatroc Neanderthal can explain it. Who knew?

Um, yeah.

"Very little need for me to carry coverage for having a baby AND prostate cancer" -- yeah don't you just hate how insurance works? Indeed, we should go with one price, single-payer government coverage or even the choice of a "public option" .... and hear the howls of socialism echo across red states, City Wire Land, handsomely compensated hospital CEO's, doctors and insurance lobbyists. Alas, if only we had maintained the status quo, the good old days when nobody lost insurance coverage at the whims of their insurance provider.

Um, yeah.

"Very little need for me to carry coverage for having a baby AND prostate cancer" -- yeah don't you just hate how insurance works? Indeed, we should go with one price, single-payer government coverage or even the choice of a "public option" .... and hear the howls of socialism echo across red states, City Wire Land, handsomely compensated hospital CEO's, doctors and insurance lobbyists. Alas, if only we had maintained the status quo, the good old days when nobody lost insurance coverage at the whims of their insurance provider.